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Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Foreign Exchange Reserves


India’s foreign exchange reserves were US $ 261.1 billion as on October 19, 2007, higher by US $ 62.0 billion over end-March 2007. The increase in reserves was mainly due to an increase in foreign currency assets from US $ 191.9 billion during end-March 2007 to US $ 253.3 billion as on October 19, 2007 (Table 58).
India holds the fifth largest stock of reserves among the emerging market economies and sixth largest in the world. The overall approach to the management of India’s foreign exchange reserves in recent years reflects the changing composition of the balance of payments and the ‘liquidity risks’ associated with different types of flows and other requirements. Taking these factors into account, India’s foreign exchange reserves continued to be at a comfortable level and consistent with the rate of growth, the share of external sector in the economy and the size of risk-adjusted capital flows.
External Debt
India’s total external debt was placed at US $ 165.4 billion at end-June 2007, recording an increase of US $ 8.7 billion (5.6 per cent) over end-March 2007. The increase in external debt during the period was mainly on account of higher external commercial borrowings, followed by higher NRI deposits and short-term trade credit. Over 50 per cent of the external debt stock was denominated in US dollars followed by the Indian rupee (18.0 per cent), SDR (12.3 per cent) and Japanese yen (12.0 per cent). Debt sustainability indicators such as the ratio of short-term to total debt and short-term debt to reserves increased marginally between end-March 2007 and end-June 2007. Foreign exchange reserves remained in excess of the stock of external debt (Table 59).
International Investment Position
India’s net international liabilities declined by US $ 2.7 billion between end-March 2006 and end-March 2007, as the increase in international assets (US $ 60.8 billion) exceeded the increase in international liabilities (US $ 58.1 billion) (Table 60). The increase in international assets was mainly on account of reserve assets, which registered an increase of US $ 47.6 billion between end-March 2006 and end-March 2007, followed by direct investment abroad whichincreased by US $ 11 billion during the same period. International liabilities reflected increases in direct and portfolio investment and loans at end-March 2007 from their levels at end-March 2006. A major part of the liabilities like direct and portfolio investments reflects cumulative inflows, which are at historical prices.

Capital flows to India

Capital flows to India have remained buoyant during the financial year 2007-08 so far. Among the major components of capital flows, foreign investment recorded an inflow of US $ 20.7 billion during April-July 2007. Inflows under foreign direct investment (FDI) into India at US $ 6.6 billion during April-July 2007 (US $ 3.7 billion in April-July 2006) witnessed significant increase, reflecting the continuing pace of expansion of domestic activities, positive investment climate, and long-term view of India as the investment destination. FDI was channelled mainly into services sector (34.2 per cent), followed by construction industry (20.6 per cent). While Mauritius continued as the dominant sources of FDI to India, FDI from Singapore exceeded that from the US.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) inflows (net) have aggregated US $ 21.2 billion during the current financial year so far (up to October 19, 2007), reflecting, inter alia, strong corporate performance and strong domestic equity markets (Table 57). The number of FIIs registered with the SEBI increased from 997 by end-March 2007 to 1,113 by October 15, 2007. Capital inflows through American depository receipts (ADRs)/global depository receipts (GDRs) abroad amounted to US $ 2.3 billion during April-July 2007.
During the first quarter of 2007-08 (April-June 2007), net inflows under external commercial borrowings (ECBs) continued to be buoyant at US $ 7.0 billion. Ongoing technological upgradation and modernisation combined with expansion of domestic industrial activities have led to increased investment demand by Indian companies, and some hardening of domestic interest rates, which is reflected in higher recourse to ECBs.

Friday, March 09, 2007

Derivatives

INTRODUCTION
BSE created history on June 9, 2000 by launching the first Exchange traded Index Derivative Contract i.e. futures on the capital market benchmark index - the BSE Sensex. The inauguration of trading was done by Prof. J.R. Varma, member of SEBI and chairman of the committee responsible for formulation of risk containment measures for the Derivatives market. The first historical trade of 5 contracts of June series was done on June 9, 2000 at 9:55:03 a.m. between M/s Kaji & Maulik Securities Pvt. Ltd. and M/s Emkay Share & Stock Brokers Ltd. at the rate of 4755.In the sequence of product innovation, the exchange commenced trading in Index Options on Sensex on June 1, 2001. Stock options were introduced on 31 stocks on July 9, 2001 and single stock futures were launched on November 9, 2002.September 13, 2004 marked another milestone in the history of Indian Capital Markets, the day on which the Bombay Stock Exchange launched Weekly Options, a unique product unparallel in derivatives markets, both domestic and international. BSE permitted trading in weekly contracts in options in the shares of four leading companies namely Reliance, Satyam, State Bank of India, and Tisco in addition to the flagship index-Sensex.

TYPES OF PRODUCTS

Index Futures

A futures contract is a standardized contract to buy or sell a specific security at a future date at an agreed price.An index future is, as the name suggests, a future on the index i.e. the underlying is the index itself. There is no underlying security or a stock, which is to be delivered to fulfill the obligations as index futures are cash settled. As other derivatives, the contract derives its value from the underlying index. The underlying indices in this case will be the various eligible indices and as permitted by the Regulator from time to time.
Click here for list of Index Futures Products

Index Options

Options contract give its holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell something on or before a specified date at a stated price. Generally index options are European Style. European Style options are those option contracts that can be exercised only on the expiration date. The underlying indices for index options are the various eligible indices and as permitted by the Regulator from time to time.
Click here for list of Index Options Products

Stock Futures

A stock futures contract is a standardized contract to buy or sell a specific stock at a future date at an agreed price. A stock future is, as the name suggests, a future on a stock i.e. the underlying is a stock. The contract derives its value from the underlying stock. Single stock futures are cash settled.
Click here for list of Stock Futures Products

Stock Options

Options on Individual Stocks are options contracts where the underlyings are individual stocks. Based on eligibility criteria and subject to the approval from the regulator, stocks are selected on which options are introduced. These contracts are cash settled and are American style. American Style options are those option contracts that can be exercised on or before the expiration date.
Click here for list of Stock Options Products

Weekly Options

Equity Futures & Options were introduced in India having a maximum life of 3 months. These options expire on the last Thursday of the expiring month. There was a need felt in the market for options of shorter maturity. To cater to this need of the market participants BSE launched weekly options on September 13, 2004 on 4 stocks and the BSE Sensex.Weekly options have the same characteristics as that of the Monthly Stock Options (stocks and indices) except that these options settle on Friday of every week. These options are introduced on Monday of every week and have a maturity of 2 weeks, expiring on Friday of the expiring week.

Click here for the list of Weekly Stock and Index Option Contracts

Source:-http://www.bseindia.com

SENSEX - THE BAROMETER OF INDIAN CAPITAL MARKETS

For the premier Stock Exchange that pioneered the stock broking activity in India, 128 years of experience seems to be a proud milestone. A lot has changed since 1875 when 318 persons became members of what today is called "The Stock Exchange, Mumbai" by paying a princely amount of Re1.Since then, the country's capital markets have passed through both good and bad periods. The journey in the 20th century has not been an easy one.

Till the decade of eighties, there was no scale to measure the ups and downs in the Indian stock market. The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) in 1986 came out with a stock index that subsequently became the barometer of the Indian stock market.SENSEX is not only scientifically designed but also based on globally accepted construction and review methodology. First compiled in 1986, SENSEX is a basket of 30 constituent stocks representing a sample of large, liquid and representative companies.

The base year of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100. The index is widely reported in both domestic and international markets through print as well as electronic media.The Index was initially calculated based on the "Full Market Capitalization" methodology but was shifted to the free-float methodology with effect from September 1, 2003. The "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology of index construction is regarded as an industry best practice globally. All major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, STOXX, S&P and Dow Jones use the Free-float methodology.Due to is wide acceptance amongst the Indian investors; SENSEX is regarded to be the pulse of the Indian stock market. As the oldest index in the country, it provides the time series data over a fairly long period of time (From 1979 onwards). Small wonder, the SENSEX has over the years become one of the most prominent brands in the country.The growth of equity markets in India has been phenomenal in the decade gone by. Right from early nineties the stock market witnessed heightened activity in terms of various bull and bear runs. The SENSEX captured all these events in the most judicial manner. One can identify the booms and busts of the Indian stock market through SENSEX.

SENSEX Calculation Methodology

SENSEX is calculated using the "Free-float Market Capitalization" methodology. As per this methodology, the level of index at any point of time reflects the Free-float market value of 30 component stocks relative to a base period. The market capitalization of a company is determined by multiplying the price of its stock by the number of shares issued by the company. This market capitalization is further multiplied by the free-float factor to determine the free-float market capitalization.The base period of SENSEX is 1978-79 and the base value is 100 index points. This is often indicated by the notation 1978-79=100. The calculation of SENSEX involves dividing the Free-float market capitalization of 30 companies in the Index by a number called the Index Divisor. The Divisor is the only link to the original base period value of the SENSEX. It keeps the Index comparable over time and is the adjustment point for all Index adjustments arising out of corporate actions, replacement of scrips etc. During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which latest trades are executed, are used by the trading system to calculate SENSEX every 15 seconds and disseminated in real time.

Dollex-30

BSE also calculates a dollar-linked version of SENSEX and historical values of this index are available since its inception. (For more details click ‘Dollex series of BSE indices’)

Understanding Free-float MethodologyConcept:

Free-float Methodology refers to an index construction methodology that takes into consideration only the free-float market capitalization of a company for the purpose of index calculation and assigning weight to stocks in Index. Free-float market capitalization is defined as that proportion of total shares issued by the company that are readily available for trading in the market. It generally excludes promoters' holding, government holding, strategic holding and other locked-in shares that will not come to the market for trading in the normal course. In other words, the market capitalization of each company in a Free-float index is reduced to the extent of its readily available shares in the market.In India, BSE pioneered the concept of Free-float by launching BSE TECk in July 2001 and BANKEX in June 2003. While BSE TECk Index is a TMT benchmark, BANKEX is positioned as a benchmark for the banking sector stocks. SENSEX becomes the third index in India to be based on the globally accepted Free-float Methodology.Major advantages of Free-float Methodology:

· A Free-float index reflects the market trends more rationally as it takes into consideration only those shares that are available for trading in the market.

· Free-float Methodology makes the index more broad-based by reducing the concentration of top few companies in Index. For example, the concentration of top five companies in SENSEX has fallen under the free-float scenario thereby making the SENSEX more diversified and broad-based.

· A Free-float index aids both active and passive investing styles. It aids active managers by enabling them to benchmark their fund returns vis-à-vis an investable index. This enables an apple-to-apple comparison thereby facilitating better evaluation of performance of active managers. Being a perfectly replicable portfolio of stocks, a Free-float adjusted index is best suited for the passive managers as it enables them to track the index with the least tracking error.


· Free-float Methodology improves index flexibility in terms of including any stock from the universe of listed stocks. This improves market coverage and sector coverage of the index. For example, under a Full-market capitalization methodology, companies with large market capitalization and low free-float cannot generally be included in the Index because they tend to distort the index by having an undue influence on the index movement. However, under the Free-float Methodology, since only the free-float market capitalization of each company is considered for index calculation, it becomes possible to include such closely held companies in the index while at the same time preventing their undue influence on the index movement.

· Globally, the Free-float Methodology of index construction is considered to be an industry best practice and all major index providers like MSCI, FTSE, S&P and STOXX have adopted the same. MSCI, a leading global index provider, shifted all its indices to the Free-float Methodology in 2002. The MSCI India Standard Index, which is followed by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) to track Indian equities, is also based on the Free-float Methodology. NASDAQ-100, the underlying index to the famous Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) - QQQ is based on the Free-float Methodology.
Definition of Free-float:
Share holdings held by investors that would not, in the normal course come into the open market for trading are treated as 'Controlling/ Strategic Holdings' and hence not included in free-float. In specific, the following categories of holding are generally excluded from the definition of Free-float:


Holdings by founders/directors/ acquirers which has control element
Holdings by persons/ bodies with "Controlling Interest"
Government holding as promoter/acquirer
Holdings through the FDI Route
Strategic stakes by private corporate bodies/ individuals
Equity held by associate/group companies (cross-holdings)
Equity held by Employee Welfare Trusts
Locked-in shares and shares which would not be sold in the open market in normal course.
The remaining shareholders would fall under the Free-float category.Determining Free-float factors of companies:
BSE has designed a Free-float format, which is filled and submitted by all index companies on a quarterly basis with the Exchange. (Format available on http://www.bseindia.com/) The Exchange determines the Free-float factor for each company based on the detailed information submitted by the companies in the prescribed format. Free-float factor is a multiple with which the total market capitalization of a company is adjusted to arrive at the Free-float market capitalization. Once the Free-float of a company is determined, it is rounded-off to the higher multiple of 5 and each company is categorized into one of the 20 bands given below. A Free-float factor of say 0.55 means that only 55% of the market capitalization of the company will be considered for index calculation.Free-float Bands:


% Free-Float Free Float Factor
>0 – 5% 0.05 >50 – 55% 0.55
>5 – 10% 0.10 >55 – 60% 0.60
>10 – 15% 0.15 >60 – 65% 0.65
>15 – 20% 0.20 >65 – 70% 0.70
>20 – 25% 0.25 >70 – 75% 0.75
>25 – 30% 0.30 >75 – 80% 0.80
>30 – 35% 0.35 >80 – 85% 0.85
>35 – 40% 0.40 >85 – 90% 0.90
>40 – 45% 0.45 >90 – 95% 0.95
>45 – 50% 0.50 >95 – 100% 1.00

Index Closure Algorithm
The closing SENSEX on any trading day is computed taking the weighted average of all the trades on SENSEX constituents in the last 30 minutes of trading session. If a SENSEX constituent has not traded in the last 30 minutes, the last traded price is taken for computation of the Index closure. If a SENSEX constituent has not traded at all in a day, then its last day's closing price is taken for computation of Index closure. The use of Index Closure Algorithm prevents any intentional manipulation of the closing index value.Maintenance of SENSEXOne of the important aspects of maintaining continuity with the past is to update the base year average. The base year value adjustment ensures that replacement of stocks in Index, additional issue of capital and other corporate announcements like 'rights issue' etc. do not destroy the historical value of the index. The beauty of maintenance lies in the fact that adjustments for corporate actions in the Index should not per se affect the index values.The Index Cell of the exchange does the day-to-day maintenance of the index within the broad index policy framework set by the Index Committee. The Index Cell ensures that SENSEX and all the other BSE indices maintain their benchmark properties by striking a delicate balance between frequent replacements in index and maintaining its historical continuity. The Index Committee of the Exchange comprises of experts on capital markets from all major market segments. They include Academicians, Fund-managers from leading Mutual Funds, Finance-Journalists, Market Participants, Independent Governing Board members, and Exchange administration.On-Line Computation of the Index:During market hours, prices of the index scrips, at which trades are executed, are automatically used by the trading computer to calculate the SENSEX every 15 seconds and continuously updated on all trading workstations connected to the BSE trading computer in real time.Adjustment for Bonus, Rights and Newly issued Capital:The arithmetic calculation involved in calculating SENSEX is simple, but problem arises when one of the component stocks pays a bonus or issues rights shares. If no adjustments were made, a discontinuity would arise between the current value of the index and its previous value despite the non-occurrence of any economic activity of substance. At the Index Cell of the Exchange, the base value is adjusted, which is used to alter market capitalization of the component stocks to arrive at the SENSEX value.The Index Cell of the Exchange keeps a close watch on the events that might affect the index on a regular basis and carries out daily maintenance of all the 14 Indices.
· Adjustments for Rights Issues:When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues right shares, the free-float market capitalisation of that company is increased by the number of additional shares issued based on the theoretical (ex-right) price. An offsetting or proportionate adjustment is then made to the Base Market Capitalisation (see 'Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment' below).
· Adjustments for Bonus Issue:When a company, included in the compilation of the index, issues bonus shares, the market capitalisation of that company does not undergo any change. Therefore, there is no change in the Base Market Capitalisation, only the 'number of shares' in the formula is updated.
· Other Issues:Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment is required when new shares are issued by way of conversion of debentures, mergers, spin-offs etc. or when equity is reduced by way of buy-back of shares, corporate restructuring etc.

Base Market Capitalisation Adjustment:

The formula for adjusting the Base Market Capitalisation is as follows:

New Base Market Capitalisation =Old Base Market Capitalisation x (New Market Capitalisation/Old Market Capitalisation)

To illustrate, suppose a company issues right shares which increases the market capitalisation of the shares of that company by say, Rs.100 crores. The existing Base Market Capitalisation (Old Base Market Capitalisation), say, is Rs.2450 crores and the aggregate market capitalisation of all the shares included in the index before the right issue is made is, say Rs.4781 crores. The "New Base Market Capitalisation " will then be:

2450 x (4781+100)/4781 = Rs.2501.24 crores

This figure of 2501.24 will be used as the Base Market Capitalisation for calculating the index number from then onwards till the next base change becomes necessary.

SENSEX - Scrip selection criteria:

The general guidelines for selection of constituents in SENSEX are as follows:

Listed History:The scrip should have a listing history of at least 3 months at BSE. Exception may be considered if full market capitalisation of a newly listed company ranks among top 10 in the list of BSE universe. In case, a company is listed on account of merger/ demerger/ amalgamation, minimum listing history would not be required.
Trading Frequency:The scrip should have been traded on each and every trading day in the last three months. Exceptions can be made for extreme reasons like scrip suspension etc.

Final Rank:The scrip should figure in the top 100 companies listed by final rank. The final rank is arrived at by assigning 75% weightage to the rank on the basis of three-month average full market capitalisation and 25% weightage to the liquidity rank based on three-month average daily turnover & three-month average impact cost.

Market Capitalization Weightage:The weightage of each scrip in SENSEX based on three-month average free-float market capitalisation should be at least 0.5% of the Index.

Industry Representation:Scrip selection would generally take into account a balanced representation of the listed companies in the universe of BSE.

Track Record:In the opinion of the Committee, the company should have an acceptable track record.

Index Review Frequency:The Index Committee meets every quarter to discuss index related issues. In case of a revision in the Index constituents, the announcement of the incoming and outgoing scrips is made six weeks in advance of the actual implementation of the revision of the Index.

Source:- http://www.bseindia.com

Friday, January 12, 2007

Without Indians, US economy won't be same:Report

Indian immigrants are a significant driving force behind the creation of new engineering and technology companies in the United States in the past decade than their counterparts from the UK, China, Taiwan and Japan put together. Of an estimated 73-hundred US tech startups founded by immigrants, 26 per cent have Indian founders, CEOs, presidents or head researchers, a new study says. "Indians have beaten the Chinese in start-up hotbeds like Silicon Valley with a share of 15.5 per cent, up from 7 per cent between 1980 to 1998," says the study, ‘Silicon Valley's New Immigrant Entrepreneurs’ , by researchers in the master of engineering management programme at the Pratt School of Engineering at the Duke University.

The study, which covered 28,766 firms with annual sales of more than USD 1 million and 20 or more employees, comes nearly eight years after an influential report from the University of California, Berkeley, on the impact of foreign-born entrepreneurs.

"This study shows the tremendous contribution immigrants in general and Indians in particular are making to the US economy and global competitiveness. This is a win-win for America and for the immigrants that make it here," Vivek Wadhwa, Delhi-born Duke's executive in residence and the founder of two tech startups in North Carolina's Research Triangle said. Wadhwa, project's lead researcher, stressed that "the country should make the most of its ability to "get the best and brightest from around the world."

"Indians constitute less than one per cent of the US population and are starting many times the businesses as other groups. They are creating jobs and contributing tens of billions to the US economy. Without Indian entrepreneurs, it would not be the same", Wadhwa said. AnnaLee Saxenian, study co-author and dean of the School of Information at UC-Berkeley, estimated immigrants founded about 25 per cent of Silicon Valley tech companies in 1999. The Duke study found the percentage had more than doubled, to 52 per cent in 2005.

The research debunks some recent myths about the notion that immigrants who come to the United States take jobs from Americans. "The advantage of entrepreneurs is that they're generally creating new opportunities and new wealth that didn't even exist before them," Saxenian said. "Just by leaving your home country, you're taking a risk, and that means you're willing to take risks in business. You put them in an environment that supports entrepreneurship, and this is the logical outcome." Immigrants from the UK set up 7.1 per cent of the companies, followed by China with 6.9 per cent and Taiwan with 5.8 per cent. Immigrant entrepreneurs' companies employed 450,000 workers and generated USD 52 billion in sales in 2005, according to the survey.

The share of Chinese and Taiwanese start-ups, which was 17 per cent in 1990-98 period, came down to 12.8 per cent between 1995 and 2005. The report adds that the number of Indian scientists and engineers in Silicon Valley has grown by 646 per cent between 1990 and 2000. Indian immigrants dominated even on a state-wise basis. While in New Jersey, the share of Indian start-ups was a whopping 47 per cent, in Texas, it stood at 25 per cent. This was followed by California with 20 per cent, Florida with 18 per cent, New York with 14 per cent and Massachusetts with 10 per cent. The study reveals that California, which houses the Silicon Valley, has emerged as the favourite destination for immigrant Indian entrepreneurs. Around 26 per cent Indian startups were set up there. Around 36 per cent companies in the software sector were Indian, while in the innovation and manufacturing- related services, the figure was 24 per cent. In semiconductors, Indian start-ups shared the top place with the Chinese with a share of 15 per cent each.

However, the Indians failed to dominate in sectors like computers and communications, where their share stood at 15 per cent, lower than the Chinese (19 per cent) and Taiwanese (17 per cent). The study shows that the largest number of companies started by Indians are in the software sector (46 per cent), followed by start-ups in the innovation and manufacturing- related services (44 per cent). The Duke study found that 52 per cent of Silicon Valley companies -- and 39 per cent of California startups -- were founded by foreign-born entrepreneurs.

Source:The Indian Express

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